Soy un nuevo usuario de WinBUGS y tengo una pregunta por su ayuda. Después de ejecutar el siguiente código, obtuve parámetros de beta0
through beta4
(estadísticas, densidad), pero no sé cómo obtener la predicción del último valor de h
, que configuré NA
para modelar en el código.
¿Alguien me puede dar una pista? Cualquier consejo sería muy apreciado.
model {
for(i in 1: N) {
CF01[i] ~ dnorm(0, 20)
CF02[i] ~ dnorm(0, 1)
h[i] ~ dpois (lambda [i])
log(lambda [i]) <- beta0 + beta1*CF03[i] + beta2*CF02[i] + beta3*CF01[i] + beta4*IND[i]
}
beta0 ~ dnorm(0.0, 1.0E-6)
beta1 ~ dnorm(0.0, 1.0E-6)
beta2 ~ dnorm(0.0, 1.0E-6)
beta3 ~ dnorm(0.0, 1.0E-6)
beta4 <- log(p)
p ~ dunif(lower, upper)
}
INITS
list(beta0 = 0, beta1 = 0, beta2 = 0, beta3 = 0, p = 0.9)
DATA(LIST)
list(N = 154, lower = 0.80, upper = 0.95,
h = c(1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 4, 2,
3, 0, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 2, 3, 1, 0, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 0, 1,
0, 5, 2, 1, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 0, 2, 2, 0, 3, 0, 0, 3, 2, 2, 2,
1, 0, 3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0, 2, 1, 0, 0, 2, 5,
0, 2, 1, 0, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 0, 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0, 1, 3, 3,
3, 1, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 4, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 0, 0, 1, 1,
1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1,
0, 3, 3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 6, NA),
CF03 = c(-1.575, 0.170, -1.040, -0.010, -0.750,
0.665, -0.250, 0.145, -0.345, -1.915, -1.515,
0.215, -1.040, -0.035, 0.805, -0.860, -1.775,
1.725, -1.345, 1.055, -1.935, -0.160, -0.075,
-1.305, 1.175, 0.130, -1.025, -0.630, 0.065,
-0.665, 0.415, -0.660, -1.145, 0.165, 0.955,
-0.920, 0.250, -0.365, 0.750, 0.045, -2.760,
-0.520, -0.095, 0.700, 0.155, -0.580, -0.970,
-0.685, -0.640, -0.900, -0.250, -1.355, -1.330,
0.440, -1.505, -1.715, -0.330, 1.375, -1.135,
-1.285, 0.605, 0.360, 0.705, 1.380, -2.385, -1.875,
-0.390, 0.770, 1.605, -0.430, -1.120, 1.575, 0.440,
-1.320, -0.540, -1.490, -1.815, -2.395, 0.305,
0.735, -0.790, -1.070, -1.085, -0.540, -0.935,
-0.790, 1.400, 0.310, -1.150, -0.725, -0.150,
-0.640, 2.040, -1.180, -0.235, -0.070, -0.500,
-0.750, -1.450, -0.235, -1.635, -0.460, -1.855,
-0.925, 0.075, 2.900, -0.820, -0.170, -0.355,
-0.170, 0.595, 0.655, 0.070, 0.330, 0.395, 1.165,
0.750, -0.275, -0.700, 0.880, -0.970, 1.155, 0.600,
-0.075, -1.120, 1.480, -1.255, 0.255, 0.725,
-1.230, -0.760, -0.380, -0.015, -1.005, -1.605,
0.435, -0.695, -1.995, 0.315, -0.385, -0.175,
-0.470, -1.215, 0.780, -1.860, -0.035, -2.700,
-1.055, 1.210, 0.600, -0.710, 0.425, 0.155, -0.525,
-0.565),
CF02 = c(NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA,
NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, 0.38, 0.06, -0.94,
-0.02, -0.28, -0.78, -0.95, 2.33, 1.43, 1.24, 1.26,
-0.75, -1.5, -2.09, 1.01, -0.05, 2.48, 2.48, 0.46,
0.46, -0.2, -1.11, 0.52, -0.37, 0.58, 0.86, 0.59,
-0.12, -1.33, 1.4, -1.84, -1.4, -0.76, -0.23,
-1.78, -1.43, 1.2, 0.32, 1.87, 0.43, -1.71, -0.54,
-1.25, -1.01, -1.98, 0.52, -1.07, -0.44, -0.24,
-1.31, -2.14, -0.43, 2.47, -0.09, -1.32, -0.3,
-0.99, 1.1, 0.41, 1.01, -0.19, 0.45, -0.07, -1.41,
0.87, 0.68, 1.61, 0.36, -1.06, -0.44, -0.16, 0.72,
-0.69, -0.94, 0.11, 1.25, 0.33, -0.05, 0.87, -0.37,
-0.2, -2.22, 0.26, -0.53, -1.59, 0.04, 0.16, -2.66,
-0.21, -0.92, 0.25, -1.36, -1.62, 0.61, -0.2, 0,
1.14, 0.27, -0.64, 2.29, -0.56, -0.59, 0.44, -0.05,
0.56, 0.71, 0.32, -0.38, 0.01, -1.62, 1.74, 0.27, 0.97,
1.22, -0.21, -0.05, 1.15, 1.49, -0.15, 0.05, -0.87,
-0.3, -0.08, 0.5, 0.84, -1.67, 0.69, 0.47, 0.44,
-1.35, -0.24, -1.5, -1.32, -0.08, 0.76, -0.57,
-0.84, -1.11, 1.94, -0.68),
CF01 = c(NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA,
NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA,
NA, -0.117, -0.211, -0.333, -0.229, -0.272,
-0.243, -0.148, 0.191, -0.263, -0.239, -0.168,
-0.381, -0.512, -0.338, -0.296, 0.067, 0.104,
-0.254, -0.167, -0.526, -0.096, -0.43, 0.013,
-0.438, -0.297, -0.131, -0.098, -0.046, -0.063,
-0.194, -0.155, -0.645, -0.603, -0.374, -0.214,
-0.165, -0.509, -0.171, -0.442, -0.468, -0.289,
-0.427, -0.519, -0.454, 0.046, -0.275, -0.401,
-0.542, -0.488, -0.52, -0.018, -0.551, -0.444,
-0.254, -0.286, 0.048, -0.03, -0.015, -0.219,
-0.029, 0.059, 0.007, 0.157, 0.141, -0.035, 0.136,
0.526, 0.113, 0.22, -0.022, -0.173, 0.021, -0.027,
0.261, 0.082, -0.266, -0.284, -0.097, 0.097, -0.06,
0.397, 0.315, 0.302, -0.026, 0.268, -0.111, 0.084,
0.14, -0.073, 0.287, 0.061, 0.035, -0.022, -0.091,
-0.22, -0.021, -0.17, -0.184, 0.121, -0.192,
-0.24, -0.283, -0.003, -0.45, -0.138, -0.143,
0.017, -0.245, 0.003, 0.108, 0.015, -0.219, 0.09,
-0.22, -0.004, -0.178, 0.396, 0.204, 0.342, 0.079,
-0.034, -0.122, -0.24, -0.125, 0.382, 0.072, 0.294,
0.577, 0.4, 0.213, 0.359, 0.074, 0.388, 0.253, 0.167),
IND = c(1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0))
h[N]
lugar de lambda[N]
... y obtienes la distribución posterior del valor predicho.
h[N]
no es el valor predicho: será una colección de sorteos de un conjunto de distribuciones de Poisson pronosticadas. Como tal, combina la variación en los parámetros de Poisson y la variación de esas distribuciones de Poisson. Lo relevante es la distribución posterior de lambda[N]
.